The Planning Fallacy is an essay by Eliezer Yudkowsky from Ramit Sethi's blog I will Teach You To Be Rich. The essay in a nutshell says that we're bad at estimating.
Estimation IMO is a crap shoot. If you hold me accountable to my forecasts I'll guess how long I think I can finish something then double it. That seems to come in right on time. It's never as quickly as I think it will be. There's always something that can be done up to the deadline.
If I can't just double a guess I prefer to use Joel Spolsky's Painless Software Schedules.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Interesting Read: The Planning Fallacy
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